Hungary and the Way forward for Europe

By John Chin & Mirren Hibbert

On 1 January, Hungary’s six-month presidency of the EU Council ended, and the EU made the unprecedented choice to withhold assist to Hungary over rule-of-law violations. John Chin and Mirren Hibbert put these developments within the context of constant democratic backsliding in Hungary – and divisions over the way forward for Europe

From EU presidency to pariah

On New Yr’s day 2025, Hungary’s standing was downgraded in a single day from rotating EU president to EU pariah. The European Fee introduced its choice to withhold $1 billion in assist from Hungary over rule-of-law violations. The EU has investigated Hungary’s potential breach of European values since 2018 beneath Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty. It has taken till now, nonetheless, for it to impose any prices. On 7 January, the outgoing Biden administration accused a prime aide of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of corruption, and imposed sanctions.

As new EU Council president, Poland beneath Prime Minister Donald Tusk is attempting to steer the EU agenda in direction of liberal internationalism and defence of Ukraine. Tusk needs to maneuver away from Hungary’s conservative populist nationalism and opposition to help for Ukraine. But Orbán is working to place himself into turning into Donald Trump’s man in Europe. He just lately visited Mar-a-Lago, and predicts that Trump’s second time period presages a right-wing surge in Europe, in Hungary’s picture.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is working to place himself as Donald Trump’s man in Europe

Since 2010, Hungary beneath Orbán has been a poster little one for democratic backsliding in central Europe. Whether or not Orbán succeeds in ‘occupying Brussels‘ earlier than the EU brings Hungary to heel has main implications for democracy’s future in Europe.

Hungary’s democratic backsliding

After the collapse of communism in 1989, Hungary loved 20 years as a liberal democracy. It joined NATO in 1999, the EU in 2004, and the Schengen zone in 2007. Incumbents frequently misplaced energy, together with Orbán, who first served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002. As late as 2009, Orbán’s Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Alliance was, Larry Bartels notes, a ‘totally typical conservative opposition celebration’ whose supporters have been removed from aggrieved populists. Democracy appeared consolidated.

However Hungary’s democracy deconsolidated rapidly after the 2008 world monetary disaster and the Gyurcsány scandal swept Fidesz to energy in 2010. Profitable 53% of the vote however 68% of nationwide meeting seats, Fidesz wasted no time in turning Hungary in an intolerant path. Orbán, a liberal-turned-Christian-nationalist, used Fidesz’ super-majority to launch a ‘constitutional coup‘ and scale back legislative and judicial constraints on the manager. He then undermined educational freedom, media freedom, and civil society. He peddled conspiracy theories a couple of George Soros-led pro-immigration cabal.

In 2019, Hungary turned the primary EU member to be downgraded to ‘electoral autocracy’ by the V-Dem institute

Hungary has skilled extreme democratic backsliding and rising neopatrimonialism since 2010, per V-Dem knowledge (see determine under). Amongst all 42 ongoing episodes of autocratisation worldwide in 2023, Hungary’s is probably the most pronounced. Poland noticed practically as giant a decline in its liberal democracy rating since 2015 from the next begin level. In 2019, nonetheless, Hungary turned the primary member of the European Union to ever be downgraded to an electoral autocracy by V-Dem, having beforehand been downgraded from a liberal democracy to an electoral democracy in 2010.

Dimensions of democracy in Hungary since 1949
fig1 310 Hungary neopatlibdemdemocracycube Knowledge Supply: Creator replication of Boese et al. (2022) utilizing V-Dem 2024, v. 14

Orbán exploited the Covid pandemic to grab much more energy. In 2022, when Orbán gained his fourth straight election – one denounced by consultants as lower than free and truthful – the European Parliament declared that Hungary is not a democracy. That yr, the European Court docket of Justice dominated that price range help could possibly be withheld from member states for flouting democratic requirements beneath the ‘conditionality mechanism‘.

Hungary and Autocracy Inc.

Through the Chilly Conflict, Hungary was a Soviet satellite tv for pc, its place within the communist bloc cemented by suppression of the 1956 revolution. In response to FBIC knowledge, the Soviet Union had extra affect capability within the nation than all different main powers mixed. Since 1990, collective Western affect capability grew constantly till 2010, whereas that of Russia declined precipitously. Nonetheless, since 2010, western affect capability (other than rising arms exports from Germany) has largely plateaued, whereas China’s financial affect capability in Hungary has grown, whilst Russia’s shrinks:

Formal bilateral affect capability in Hungary, 1960–2023
fig2 310 Hungary fig fbictrends alt Knowledge Supply: FBIC dataset v. 3.6, Frederick S. Pardee Middle for Worldwide Futures

Orbán is the one standing EU member of what Anne Applebaum calls Autocracy Inc. Different frontline states in central and Japanese Europe from Poland to Moldova have been actively resisting authoritarian sharp energy of their nations. However Hungary beneath Orbán has sought strategic autonomy inside Europe and heightened worldwide standing – and has due to this fact invited improved/nearer relations with Russia and China.

In distinction with Hungary, different central and Japanese European states have been resisting authoritarian sharp energy

Viktor Orbán is Vladimir Putin’s closest ally within the EU. Certainly, he solely partially softened his embrace of Moscow after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Hungary dragged its toes for 19 months earlier than approving Sweden’s bid to affix NATO final February, repeatedly held up assist for Ukraine, turned itself right into a hub for Russian gasoline, and opposes EU sanctions on Russia. In July, Orbán turned the primary EU chief to fulfill with Putin since April 2022. Russian diplomatic affect in Budapest is growing; Fidesz-aligned media have additionally unfold Russian propaganda and Russian-sponsored disinformation.

Hungary can also be ‘flirting with China‘. Beijing’s affect is rising in Hungary, however from an admittedly low baseline. Hungary is a big recipient of Belt and Highway Initiative funding, with Beijing financing a Eurasian railway connecting Budapest to Belgrade. After expelling the Soros-affiliated Central European College from Hungary in 2018, the Orbán authorities green-lit controversial plans for China’s Fudan College to construct a campus in Budapest. In August, Orbán met with Xi Jinping in Beijing.

The way forward for democratic Europe

It isn’t sustainable for an EU member like Hungary to concurrently be a member of Autocracy Inc. Leaders in Budapest and Brussels appear to recognise this. The query, then, is one among geopolitics and values: whose imaginative and prescient will prevail in Europe?

If his newest posts on X are to be believed, Orbán appears assured that the longer term is with him, Trump, and Europe’s conservative populist nationalists, after years of clashing with liberals in Brussels and the Biden administration.

But Orbán’s confidence could also be misplaced. Hungary is the primary EU pariah, more and more remoted on the earth. Orbán additionally faces financial and corruption issues domestically, which can assist rising political challengers within the subsequent parliamentary elections.

This text was initially revealed at The Loop and is republished right here beneath a Inventive Commons license.

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Beforehand Printed on theloop.ecpr.eu with Inventive Commons License

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