Restricted Shift in Public Opinion on Identical-Intercourse Marriage in Japan

By Robert Nordström

Regardless of a sequence of courtroom rulings difficult Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage, public opinion stays largely unmoved. Robert Nordström presents proof from new survey information which reveals the fleeting affect of judicial motion in advancing LGBTQ rights on this conservative society

On 13 December 2024, the Fukuoka Excessive Court docket dominated that Japan’s ban on same-sex marriage was unconstitutional. This was probably the most clear-cut and stringent verdict ever made in help of same-sex marriage within the conventional and conservative East Asian nation. Thus, the nation appears to have taken one other step in direction of marriage equality.

Nevertheless, the ruling had little impact on Japanese attitudes in direction of same-sex marriage, as revealed by a survey I carried out in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures over two weeks earlier than and after the ruling. Via PureSpectrum, I requested 1,331 Japanese respondents, half earlier than the ruling and half after, whether or not the judicial ruling on same-sex marriage would have influenced their help for introducing same-sex marriage. The outcomes present {that a} optimistic impact on same-sex marriage lasted solely a day after the ruling.

LGBTQ rights in Japan

Japan is at present the one G7 nation that doesn’t legally recognise same-sex {couples}. Lately, a Pew Analysis report confirmed that public opinion in Japan has turn into way more tolerant of sexual minorities. The report even claims that Japan is among the most accommodating international locations within the area. Nonetheless, Japan’s authorities, led by the conservative Liberal Democratic Get together (LDP), is reportedly staunchly against legislating on this situation. To pursue marriage equality, activists have began utilizing completely different strategies, together with judicial motion, to attain their objective of legalising same-sex marriage.

Activists in Japan have began taking judicial motion to attain their objective of legalising same-sex marriage

On Valentine’s Day 2019, six same-sex {couples} from throughout the nation filed separate lawsuits in opposition to the Japanese authorities. In keeping with Marriage For All Japan, the curiosity organisation coordinating the authorized battle for same-sex marriage, the present ban on same-sex marriage is discriminatory and infringes on equality assured by the Japanese structure. Japan is just not the primary nation during which activists have resorted to judicial programs of motion to attain marriage equality. Take, for instance, the historic Obergefell versus Hodges resolution in america in 2015.

The 13 December ruling in Fukuoka Excessive Court docket

The latest ruling in Fukuoka is the eighth ruling amongst these circumstances thus far. Except the ruling by the Osaka native courtroom in 2022, different courts have dominated that the present system is unconstitutional. Thus, we are able to take into account the development in courtroom rulings to be the judicial system taking a constant stance on the necessity for stronger authorized protections for same-sex {couples}. The newest Excessive Court docket ruling in Fukuoka was the strongest one but. It discovered the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional below all three constitutional provisions as argued by the plaintiffs: the pursuit of happiness (article 13), equality (article 14), and freedom to marry (article 25). Earlier rulings had discovered solely violations of 1 or two of the constitutional provisions.

The newest Excessive Court docket ruling in Fukuoka discovered the same-sex marriage ban unconstitutional below three constitutional provisions

Public and media curiosity on this ruling was excessive. Main Japanese media web sites resembling YahooNews.jp and NHK Information reported on the choice as their prime story. Even LDP Prime Minister Ishiba was reported as having expressed ‘sympathy’ for the plight of same-sex {couples} after the ruling. The Google Traits information under exhibits that each time Excessive Courts declare their verdicts on this situation, the rulings collect appreciable consideration, together with the latest Fukuoka resolution. The information was broadly coated by native broadcasting stations. We are able to subsequently assume that in Fukuoka and surrounding prefectures, most (or no less than a big proportion of) Japanese adults have heard concerning the ruling.

Day by day Google Traits information for ‘same-sex marriage’ searches in Japan throughout 2024
Nordstrom fig 1 Supply: Google Traits

Nevertheless, the ruling’s impact on public approval of same-sex marriage was a lot much less spectacular. Within the preliminary hours, respondents strongly favouring same-sex marriage elevated to 40% from 26% earlier than the ruling. This impact had already dissipated inside 24 hours of the decision. The ruling appeared to have an effect on public opinion concerning same-sex marriage solely within the speedy aftermath of the ruling. Because the graph under exhibits, even in the future later, the impact was near zero.

The ruling appeared to have an effect on public opinion concerning same-sex marriage solely within the speedy aftermath of the ruling, and had no lasting impact

We should thus conclude that the ruling had no lasting impact on public opinion. Information concerning the ruling additionally appeared to fade rapidly after the decision. Many respondents have been unaware the ruling had even occurred only a few days after the occasion. The variety of respondents who have been no less than considerably supportive of same-sex marriage was 68.4% in contrast with 72.6% in a 2019 ballot carried out by Marriage for All Japan. This exhibits that earlier rulings have additionally failed to supply long-term modifications in public attitudes.

Day by day approval for same-sex marriage in Kyushu area earlier than and after the 13 December Excessive Court docket ruling
Nordstrom fig 2 Supply: Authentic survey carried out by the writer by way of PureSpectrum. The survey sampled 100 individuals per day from 6–9 December. The graph exhibits day by day means and 95% confidence intervals.
The way forward for same-sex marriage in Japan

This latest episode in Japan is at odds with earlier analysis on public opinion. Research by Andrew R. Flores and Scott Barclay and Margaret E. Tankard and Elizabeth Levy Paluck confirmed judicial rulings to be instrumental in bringing about modifications within the degree of tolerance in direction of sexual minorities. The proof from Japan exhibits that judicial motion alone appears inadequate for influencing public opinion, particularly in the long term.

Judicial rulings do typically set off shifts in public attitudes towards social insurance policies. Nevertheless, in Japan, supporters of same-sex marriage have little motive to be optimistic. They need to recognise that successful the continuing authorized battles could not affect broader societal attitudinal shifts. It’s potential, after all, that data of the courtroom rulings has not but reached sufficient of the populace to have a noticeable impact. It might even be the case that folks don’t but see or perceive the aim of the lawsuits. As a number of circumstances are at present being appealed to the Japanese Supreme Court docket, we must always proceed to observe the system.

This text was initially revealed at The Loop and is republished right here below a Inventive Commons license.

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Beforehand Revealed on theloop.ecpr.eu with Inventive Commons License

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