By James F. Downes
James F. Downes argues that the 2025 German election has upended a long time of stability: the CDU’s rightward pivot and the AfD’s historic surge have left a fragmented parliament. With the SPD’s progressive coalition shattered, a shaky ‘Grand Alliance’ gives minimal respite. Germany’s turmoil threatens EU unity — and its personal democratic foundations
Electoral earthquake
The winds of political change are sweeping over Germany within the aftermath of the 2025 federal election. As soon as a bastion of stability, the EU’s largest financial system now faces an ideal storm of financial stagnation, political polarisation, and rising right-wing populism centered on curbing immigration.
The election outcomes marked a significant political upheaval. The far-right Various für Deutschland (AfD) continued its rise, gaining 20.8% of the general vote share and 152 seats within the German Parliament (Bundestag). Outcomes additionally revealed the widespread electoral decline of the centre-left Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), which obtained solely 16.4% of the vote share, and 120 seats.
The far-right AfD continued its rise, gaining 20.8% of the vote share, and 152 seats within the Bundestag
The centre-right Union events, the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU) and the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (CSU), have been the largest winners, reaching 28.5% of the vote share and 208 seats within the Bundestag.
2025 German federal election outcomes
Political celebration
Chief
% Vote share
Seats
CDU/CSU
Friedrich Merz
28.5% (+4.4%)
208 (+11)
AfD
Alice Weidel
20.8% (+10.3%)
152 (+69)
SPD
Olaf Scholz
16.4% (-9.3%)
120 (-86)
The Greens
Robert Habeck
11.6% (-3.1%)
85 (-33)
Die Linke
Jan van Aken
and Heidi Reichinnek
8.8% (+3.9%)
64 (-25)
FDP
Christian Lindner
4.3% (-7.1%)
0 (-91)
Decline of the ‘site visitors mild’ coalition
When Olaf Scholz’s SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (the Greens), and Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP) shaped their ‘site visitors mild‘ coalition in 2021, they promised a progressive reset after 16 years of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist conservatism. Simply over three years later, the 2025 election end result has blown their alliance aside.
The Greens’ approval rankings had beforehand been on a downward trajectory amid a backlash over expensive vitality reforms and a botched phaseout of nuclear energy. In the meantime, the pro-business FDP turned collateral injury in Germany’s financial stoop, with voters possible blaming Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s austerity measures for deepening the recession. The SPD fared solely barely higher, its conventional working-class base having been eroded by inflation and an ongoing housing disaster.
The CDU’s comeback — with a rightward twist
The centre-right CDU/CSU has capitalised on the coalition authorities’s misfires. Chief Friedrich Merz, a fiscal hawk with a latest penchant for anti-immigrant rhetoric, has rebranded the celebration for disillusioned moderates. Merz’s pledge to slash company taxes and deport ‘non-integrated migrants’ (a nod to the two.1 million asylum seekers who’ve arrived since 2022) performed nicely in small cities and suburbs.
CDU chief Friedrich Merz, a fiscal hawk with a penchant for anti-immigrant rhetoric, has rebranded the celebration for disillusioned moderates
However Merz’s technique carries dangers. Merz’s hardline stance on Russia — he not too long ago referred to as to halt arms shipments to Ukraine — has alarmed NATO allies. In the meantime, Bavaria’s CSU, fearing additional losses to the AfD sooner or later, is now more likely to pressurise Merz into adopting even more durable immigration insurance policies.
The AfD surge: a political earthquake
The true shock of the 2025 German elections was the AfD’s persevering with rise. Main in Japanese Germany, the far-right celebration has expanded past its nationalist core. A rebranding marketing campaign, led by co-chair Alice Weidel, has softened AfD’s picture (fewer rallies, extra TikTok influencers) whereas doubling down on anti-EU and climate-sceptic messaging.
Key to the AfD’s enchantment is financial despair, significantly in Japanese Germany. In former industrial heartlands equivalent to Saxony-Anhalt, the place youth unemployment stays sky-high, the AfD’s ideological mixture of welfare populism (‘German jobs for German staff‘) and anti-immigration messaging has struck a chord.
Uncertainty amid a scarcity of choices
Just one viable coalition authorities state of affairs now seems possible. A revival of the SPD-CDU/CSU ‘Grand Coalition’ is rising as essentially the most possible end result, significantly after CDU chief Friedrich Merz dominated out coalition with the AfD, and introduced his intention to type a authorities earlier than Easter. A CDU-led administration below Merz would possible shift Germany towards fiscal restraint, additional weakening key EU coverage initiatives such because the European Inexperienced Deal.
A revival of the SPD-CDU/CSU ‘Grand Coalition’ is probably going the one viable coalition authorities state of affairs
In the meantime, the AfD’s electoral breakthrough will embolden far-right events throughout Europe — together with in France, Italy, Hungary, and Sweden — whereas additional straining Western unity on help for Ukraine.
This text was initially printed at The Loop and is republished right here below a Inventive Commons license.
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Beforehand Printed on theloop.ecpr.eu with Inventive Commons License
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