On US election day in November I posted a bit at my Simply Two Issues e-newsletter discussing an extended interview that Fiona Hill had given to Politico with regards to autocrats, in the USA and elsewhere on this planet. Hill, who was born within the north-east of England, labored for the primary Trump Administration, though I believe it’s honest to say that she’s not a fan.
A part of that interview—which I didn’t have house for then—was concerning the rise of oligarchy in the USA. It looks as if an excellent second to return again to it:
What we’ve seen in a bunch of different international locations is that the place you get an oligarchy in management, you even have a extra autocratic management. You begin to see the chipping away of the rule of legislation. You begin to see the squeezing of the economic system, as there’s deregulation in favor of explicit pursuits after which a way more decreased house for different folks to enter into the economic system.
The American oligarchy
The interviewer, Maura Reynolds, appears barely shocked to listen to Hill counsel within the interview that Elon Musk is an oligarch, and asks:
Does that imply you see oligarchy as one thing that’s rising in the USA?
It’s a helpful query, as a result of it provides Hill an opportunity to put out an argument that claims that the USA has been on this path for some time. She means that between the monetary disaster and the pandemic, smaller or weaker companies went beneath or have been purchased out, leading to higher enterprise consolidation.[1]
(It’s value pausing right here to say that critics of monopolies, akin to Cory Doctorow and Matt Taibbi, would additionally argue that weak and even compliant oversight and regulation waved all of this by means of, at the least till Lina Khan arrived on the Federal Commerce Fee.)
Financial energy
The billionaire house owners, she notes, are likely to dominate their sectors, and though that is seen as a function of the tech sector specifically, we now have additionally seen consolidation in sectors like meals as nicely. Monopolies are about financial energy, and though the ‘greedflation’ argument that Hill nods to is contested, there’s proof that monopolies usually are not good for innovation or competitors.
Reynolds pushes Hill on this a bit:
Folks admire the enterprise abilities of Musk and Trump. The place’s the hazard in having folks like that holding highly effective positions in authorities?
Fused collectively
And since that is an argument about oligarchy, Hill makes the apparent level that in an oligarchic system political energy and income turn out to be linked collectively.[2]
You get a shrinking of the financial system, and in addition the political system, when every little thing is centered round a really small class of very highly effective enterprise folks and political people who find themselves primarily fused collectively. The remainder of us are incidental to that class of individuals.
There’s a bit extra to all of this, and I’m going to skate over it right here as a result of I need to transfer on to some principle, however she additionally discusses the methods wherein we’re seeing patterns that emerged in Russia and different oligarchies play out within the USA.
The courts get stacked in favour of the highly effective; newspapers get taken over by the oligarchs and turn out to be autos for political affect; and that signifies that the media is susceptible as a result of these oligarchs even have contracts with the federal government. As we noticed in the USA within the run-up to the election, even earlier than Trump received.
From neoliberalism to plutocracy
Over the vacation interval, the British economist Simon Wren-Lewis wrote an extended submit on his Primarily Macro weblog discussing the way in which wherein neoliberalism had morphed into plutocracy.[3]
Neoliberalism comes with completely different definitions, and Wren-Lewis’s capsule definition is that this:
a set of concepts that helps present capital basically (e.g. lowering union energy), or at the least some components of capital with out harming others (privatisation).
It in all probability must be expanded barely since these concepts are additionally being enforced by means of state company of various sorts.
He’s within the submit in why “why neoliberalism encourages plutocracy, and how the political right that championed neoliberalism has become plutocratic.” The best way he approaches this within the piece is by analyzing quite a few dynamics at play on this course of.
Three dynamics
Dynamic 1 is concerning the growing unpopularity of neoliberalism and due to this fact the weaponisation of tradition wars as a political technique. Neoliberalism grew to become unpopular as a result of voters didn’t just like the infinite reductions to public providers. Tradition wars are a ‘look over there’ technique designed to attraction to socially conservative voters.
However tradition wars clashed with enterprise pursuits—notably within the space of immigration, which led to new types of right-wing politics, seen in all places within the rise of hard-right populism.
Dynamic 2 is a few rising dependence on wealth and the media. Maybe paradoxically, when the appropriate splits, the rich, and media house owners, who are sometimes the identical folks, have extra likelihood to play completely different teams off one another to get the coverage outcomes they need.
Dynamic 3 is the drift of centre and centre-left events away from neoliberalism, albeit too slowly for their very own good. Not like the shift in Dynamic 1, that is for financial causes, to do with the failure of neoliberal economics to ship good financial outcomes, in addition to political causes (their voters additionally hate infinite reductions in public providers).
Wren-Lewis means that:
On this new panorama, the central political combat is between proper wing socially conservative populists serving the pursuits of a choose plutocracy, and extra conventional centre or centre/left events usually triangulating on tradition wars however pursuing an financial coverage that could be a mix between neoliberalism and extra conventional social democracy.
Fractions of capital
All the identical he’s puzzled as to why centre/left events don’t make extra of the plutocracy that sits behind populist events.
At an financial degree, as we’re seeing in the USA, this makes coverage unpredictable—deregulation and tax cuts, actually, however not in ways in which allow the form of secure setting that the majority enterprise prefers.
One of many prices of this, although, is that it turns politics into a contest for the help of various fractions of capital, as we see with the Democrats in the USA and the stuttering obsession of the British Labour social gathering with ‘growth’, no matter that’s imagined to imply, and of not offending enterprise pursuits. The general public curiosity one way or the other will get misplaced on this competitors, and because of this their political base turns into more and more fragile—and susceptible to the populist proper.
Reactionary tech bros
This query of the place completely different sections of capital place their bets is the topic of an article by John Ganz at Unpopular Entrance which takes a roughly Marxist view of the emergence of Silicon Valley’s extra reactionary billionaires as Trump’s monetary vanguard. That is, as he says, the important thing distinction between Trump 2016 and Trump 2024. His piece has, I believe, numerous explanatory energy, so I’m going to provide it some air right here:
[H]ere’s what I consider occurred: Within the means of accumulating monumental wealth, the tech-oligarchs created the situations for his or her lack of social energy and, once they realized this, they received an enormous dose of sophistication consciousness and turned furiously reactionary.
Capitalism at all times creates its personal contradictions. It’s an extended piece, and fairly dense in locations, and I’m not going to have the ability to do greater than sketch it out briefly right here, however on this case, he argues that the contradiction labored like this.
New social relations
As within the nineteenth century, new expertise created new social relations. In Ganz’s account, the web accelerated the expansion of progressive concepts amongst folks whose work had been made extra precarious by the identical digital applied sciences:
the nice demonstrations of early Trumpism, #MeToo, “wokeness,” the brand new wave of labor activism, the shifting nature of gender relations, and, finally, the massive one, the George Floyd protests have been all completely different articulations of the progressive counter-thrust.
And the labour pressure of the massive expertise firms have been extra radical than their house owners have been.
‘The Great Awokening’
We don’t don’t must take Ganz’s phrase for it. As he factors out, the tech billionaire Marc Andreesen instructed Ross Douhat precisely the identical story on a podcast lately:
[T]he youngsters turned on capitalism in a really basic manner. They got here out as some model of radical Marxist, and the basic valence went from “Capitalism is good and an enabler of the good society” to “Capitalism is evil and should be torn down.” After which the opposite half was social revolution and the social revolution, after all, was the Nice Awokening, after which these conjoined.
You possibly can really feel his ache. However when folks say issues on the file to sympathetic interviewers, they’re as more likely to be telling the reality as mendacity.
Change in worldview
The results of this was a change within the worldview of Silicon Valley. Their enterprise fashions have modified as nicely—away from consumer-oriented social and digital media to industrial and army expertise.[4]
This isn’t simply politics. When you’re a fan of Carlota Perez’s techo-financial lengthy waves mannequin, these firms are on the finish of their 50-60 yr wave, and it’s getting tougher for them to generate income. Therefore “enshittification”, a phrase of the yr in 2023.
And so, their espoused politics have shifted by means of 180 levels, as Ganz describes (emphasis within the authentic):
To avoid wasting themselves, the tech-oligarchs should assault the very notion of universality as such—therefore their abandonment of liberal universalism for racism, nationalism, masculine domination, and so on., as a result of they characterize a conspiracy, a shrinking, unique curiosity towards a bigger one. They’re attacking at the start the State and the Forms, the civil servants: every little thing that Hegel recognized in The Philosophy of Proper with the common, normal curiosity of the entire society.
(Guerrilla Women, ‘President Trump Announces New Commemorative Months!’, 2016. Picture: Hrag Vartanian. Through Hyperallergic.)
Masks slipped
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are the apparent exemplars right here. Their politics have at all times been an extended technique to the appropriate—regardless of Musk’s fortune being based on giant public subsidies. However it’s also putting how shortly the masks slipped elsewhere. Zuckerberg goes on Joe Rogan’s present and blahs about ‘masculine energy’, whereas some poor Google spokeswoman has to dissemble on why Black Historical past Month, Ladies’s Historical past Month and Pleasure Month are being faraway from its calendar, and nonetheless take a look at herself within the mirror within the morning. As Ganz observes:
Musk’s whole idiocy is structural: it goes again to the very origin of the Greek time period idiotes, an individual who can not perceive the shared political lifetime of the town.These folks can not perceive that their wealth and energy usually are not their sovereign creations however the shared product of the broader state and society that helps and sustains them. [Emphasis in original).
The question about counter-revolutions such as this is: will they stick? This was probably the last chance the hard right in the United States has to stage such a counter-revolution—the circumstances of Trump’s Teflon candidacy and his second Presidency are unlikely to be repeated. But Ganz thinks they have struck too soon. Maybe the spectacle of automated everything through AGI is more than just a fable.
Needing people
Because right now, the forces of technology production still need people to help accumulate their wealth, as we see from the cheap back office labour that props up large language models and their regular insistence that their staff need to be physically in the office five days a week.
One of the things that all of this reveals is that the dystopian world in which AIs have taken our jobs and left us all destitute is not so much a scenario which needs endless public policy discussion. Instead it is the return of the repressed. It’s the story that our tech billionaires wish for, but still have to pretend that they don’t.
—
[1] The authorized groundwork was laid in 2010: “We’ve got an American system that because of Citizens United — which I think is one of the most consequential Supreme Court decisions in our lifetimes — has become a political system that’s driven by money.”
[2] Robert Reich has spelled out how this has labored for Musk since Trump grew to become president. Musk is $270 billion richer (this isn’t a typo) than he was earlier than the election as a result of dozens of Federal investigations into wrongdoing at his firms have been closed down.
Or this, from Heather Cox Richardson’s now important each day weblog on twelfth February: “As both the New York Times and the Washington Postreported today, the big winner from all the cuts to the government has been Musk himself, who has eliminated the agencies that were scrutinizing his businesses.” The $250 million he paid to finance Trump and different GOP candidates through the election abruptly appears like chump change.
[3] Wren-Lewis has a footnote on the excellence between plutocracy and oligarchy: “I prefer plutocracy to oligarchy because it stresses the key point that political leaders are either very wealthy themselves, or answer to those who are.” When you’re on the receiving finish of both of those the excellence could appear much less essential.
[4] By the way, one of many issues about consumer-facing companies is that they should some extent to mirror the people who find themselves their customers and prospects—they don’t wander too removed from the mainstream.
—
A model of this text can also be printed on my Simply Two Issues E-newsletter.
—
Beforehand Printed on thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com with Inventive Commons License
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