Trump’s Tariff Threats Match a Rising World Phenomenon: Hardball Migration Diplomacy

By Nicholas R. Micinski, College of Maine

As diplomatic spats go, it was short-lived.

On Jan 26, 2025, Colombian President Gustavo Petro turned away American army planes carrying folks being deported from the USA. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 25% tariffs and journey bans on Colombian authorities officers. Regardless of insisting that “the U.S. cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals” and wanted to “establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them,” Petro’s authorities backed down and resumed cooperation with U.S. immigration officers.

All this occurred within the span of only a few hours. However “migration diplomacy” – using diplomatic instruments and threats to manage the quantity and move of migrants – isn’t new. Certainly, it was a function of Trump’s first administration. And it isn’t distinctive to Trump; it has been within the international coverage playbook of earlier U.S. presidents in addition to the European Union and governments around the globe.

As an skilled on migration coverage and worldwide affairs, I’ve noticed the evolution of this international development, wherein nations leverage migration insurance policies for geopolitical ends.

Richer international locations with more and more populist, nationalist bases are setting up anti-migrant insurance policies. However these similar nations rely upon poorer international locations to simply accept deportations and host nearly all of the world’s refugees – governments can’t unilaterally “dump” deported immigrants again into the house nation, or in a 3rd nation.

And whereas migration diplomacy will be cooperative, there’s at all times the likelihood a disagreement will spiral into diplomatic spats or outright battle.

Threats to manage migration

Migration diplomacy is a comparatively current educational time period. However the follow of utilizing international coverage instruments to manage migration is centuries outdated. Frequent instruments of migrant diplomacy fall between the “carrots” of bilateral treaties, improvement support and infrastructure funding, and the “sticks” of tariffs, journey bans and sanctions.

Trump, throughout his first time period, centered extra on the sticks, regularly threatening tariffs or cuts in support to push via offers on migration. For instance, in 2018, Trump posted on Twitter that if Honduras and different Central American governments didn’t cease migrant caravans to the U.S., he would lower all support: “no more money or aid will be given … effective immediately!”

A number of months later, Trump adopted via with the risk, suspending US$400 million in support to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

Trump then upped the ante, posting: “Now we are looking at the ‘BAN,’ … Tariffs, Remittance Fees, or all of the above. Guatemala has not been good.”

Inside three days, Guatemala signed a cope with the U.S. to cooperate on asylum and deportations. Honduras and El Salvador adopted swimsuit two months later.

Equally, in 2019, Trump threatened Mexico that the U.S. would impose a 5% tariff on items “until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP.”

Inside 11 days, Mexico signed the Migrant Safety Protocols, referred to as the “Remain in Mexico” coverage, institutionalizing what human rights teams referred to as “illegal pushbacks” that put folks prone to torture, sexual violence and demise.

Imposing visa restrictions

Underneath the Immigration and Nationality Act, the U.S. authorities can cease granting visas to any nation that “denies or unreasonably delays accepting an alien who is a citizen.”

And through his first time period, Trump imposed visa restrictions on folks from Cambodia, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sierra Leone as a result of these international locations have been deemed to be not cooperating with deportations.

Such visa restrictions labored with Guinea and Ghana, which each started accepting deportations of their residents from the U.S.

Migration as diplomatic weapon

Nations additionally use migration coverage as instruments to push different international coverage targets not essentially associated to migration. As political scientist Kelly Greenhill explored in her e book “Weapons of Mass Migration,” governments are utilizing coercive engineered migration to create strain towards different rival nations. This was seen in 2021 when Belarus bused asylum seekers to the Polish border in an obvious effort to overwhelm the EU’s asylum system.

Equally, Trump used migration insurance policies to bully different nations into cooperating with the USA. The “Muslim ban” of his first administration – rebranded in later iterations as journey bans – banned entry of residents from Chad, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Whereas the primary govt order pertaining to the ban was instantly criticized as Islamophobic, the administration modified authorized reasoning in entrance of the Supreme Court docket, arguing that the ban stemmed from nations not sharing details about potential terrorists and as a consequence of their passports being weak to fraud.

The journey bans have been an try to coerce nations into sharing data with the U.S. and imposing U.S. requirements of identification paperwork. Certainly, Chad was later faraway from the ban when it adopted these requirements.

Using migration diplomacy by the U.S. authorities predates Trump. Tit-for-tat restrictions on journey have been frequent all through the Chilly Battle. In 2001, President George W. Bush utilized visa sanctions to Guyana when its authorities refused to cooperate on deportations. In 2016, President Barack Obama additionally utilized retaliatory visa restrictions on Gambia for failing to simply accept U.S. deportation flights.

Conditional support from EU

The European Union tends to make use of carrots somewhat than sticks to encourage cooperation on deportations. For instance, a 2016 EU-Turkey deal supplied 6 billion euros (US$6.25 million) in support for refugees in Turkey in trade for accepting the deportation of what the EU describes as “irregular migrants.” In 2023, the EU additionally struck a 105 million euro ($109 million) cope with Tunisia in return for the North African nation’s cooperation on stopping irregular migration.

However like Trump, the EU isn’t against punishing states for refusing to cooperate on deportations. In April 2024, the EU tightened guidelines on visas for Ethiopians as a result of their authorities refused to simply accept the return of residents who had asylum claims denied. Earlier, the EU suspended 15 million euros ($15.6 million) in improvement support to Ethiopia on related grounds.

Migration interdependence

Trump’s threats and EU migration offers reveal a sort of migration interdependence: Wealthy states within the World North don’t need to host massive numbers of migrants and refugees and want keen companions within the World South to simply accept deportations, implement emigration restrictions and proceed internet hosting nearly all of the world’s refugees.

This interdependence is usually balanced by wealthy international locations footing the invoice and poor international locations accepting deportations. However migration diplomacy can be utilized by much less highly effective nations conscious of the chance of exacting concessions out of nations, blocs or worldwide our bodies. For instance, the Kenyan authorities repeatedly threatened to shut the Dadaab refugee camp and expel all Somali refugees until it acquired extra worldwide support. Equally, Pakistan threatened to deport Afghan refugees until the worldwide group did extra, however backed down after important will increase in support.

Rwanda extracted round $310 million from the British authorities with out resettling a single individual after a 2022 plan aimed toward deterring asylum seekers to the U.Okay. by deporting them to Rwanda – the place their instances can be reviewed and finally settled – was blocked by the European Court docket of Human Rights and the U.Okay.’s Supreme Court docket.

Equally, the small South Pacific island nation of Nauru was paid greater than $118 million with the purpose of internet hosting all asylum seekers to Australia. The coverage broke down after experiences of abysmal circumstances in Nauru’s detention services.

Whereas migration diplomacy does work each methods, richer international locations by and huge have the higher hand. And Trump’s threats towards Colombia – and others – are only one instance of this hardball migration diplomacy.

Nicholas R. Micinski, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Worldwide Affairs, College of Maine

This text is republished from The Dialog underneath a Artistic Commons license. Learn the unique article.

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