Trying to the Skies to Navigate Icy Waters

By Andrew Dunne

Trying to the skies to navigate icy waters

Nicolas ‘Niko’ Dubreuil, a veteran polar explorer with over three many years of expertise within the Arctic, is aware of first-hand the risks of navigating the area’s icy landscapes.

In 2001, whereas trekking on an icepack in Greenland, he suffered a extreme fall, sustaining main accidents. As a substitute of being deterred although, the expertise left him captivated by the Arctic.

“I adopted the Greenlandic motto ‘Only time and ice are masters’ and decided to leave my life in France, relocate to a small village in northern Greenland, and learn the traditional Greenlandic way of living,” he mentioned.

In the present day, from Kullorsuaq, a village in northern Greenland, Dubreuil runs a bespoke tour operator service providing expeditions for vacationers, movie crews and scientists eager to study extra about sea ice and icebergs.

Certainly one of Dubreuil’s newest adventures includes coaching hunters from the realm to plant GPS probes on icebergs. Their distinctive abilities and information of the ice are getting used to help a workforce led by fellow Frenchman Laurent Bertino, a mathematician on the Nansen Environmental and Distant Sensing Middle (NERSC) in Bergen, Norway.

These exploits are a part of an bold EU-funded initiative geared toward making it safer for ships to navigate the Arctic seas.

Iceberg warnings

The Arctic is present process important adjustments resulting from local weather change, with rising temperatures resulting in declining sea ice protection, thinner ice, and elevated glacier calving, resulting in extra icebergs.

“

The Arctic navigation season is for much longer at this time than 20 years in the past. Additionally it is way more variable.

Laurent Bertino, ACCIBERG

Over the previous few many years, satellite tv for pc observations have proven that Arctic summer season sea ice has been shrinking at a price of about 13% per decade, with 2023 rating among the many lowest extents on document. The best hazard to ships is within the spring and summer season, when ice sheets fracture and drift, creating hazardous sheets of floating ice known as ice floes.

In a partnership that features the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the European Centre for Medium-Vary Climate Forecasts, Mercator Ocean Worldwide, the Italian Nationwide Analysis Council, the Technical College of Istanbul and the Danish Meteorological Institute, NERSC is coordinating a world analysis effort known as ACCIBERG that may run from January 2023 to December 2026.

Correct forecasting

The ACCIBERG workforce is monitoring sea ice and icebergs throughout the Arctic utilizing satellite tv for pc knowledge from the Copernicus community. These satellites additionally present ocean and wave data, which is built-in into forecasting fashions to foretell iceberg drift.

Their purpose is to considerably enhance the accuracy and reliability of navigational data for transport within the Arctic area by creating two freely accessible forecasting prototypes. One gives sea ice forecasts from days to months forward with indications of uncertainty, and the second is ready to present an iceberg trajectory forecast computed on demand. The GPS tags on icebergs will likely be used to enhance the forecast mannequin.

One of many greatest challenges is delivering well timed and correct forecasts to ships at sea. Presently, onshore groups usually ship picture recordsdata by way of electronic mail – a cumbersome course of, particularly given the restricted web connectivity in distant Arctic waters.

“The only information for sailors on board ships is satellite data from two or three days ago. That’s useful, but the situation can change fast because their safety relies on crew members having the time and expertise to interpret it,” mentioned Bertino.

Delivery route enlargement

By bettering probabilistic forecasting, the ACCIBERG workforce hopes to supply sailors with clearer danger assessments and higher home windows for protected passage. They’re working intently with finish customers, such because the Norwegian and Greenland Ice Service, to refine and take a look at these applied sciences.

Keld Qvistgaard is a senior ice specialist with the Greenland Ice Service, a specialised division inside the Danish Meteorological Institute that focuses on monitoring and analysing sea ice situations round Greenland. He’s an lively accomplice within the ACCIBERG workforce.

“Shipping is increasing, and user needs and requirements are also changing. There is a huge need for advancing technologies for ice monitoring and forecasting,” he mentioned.

“

There’s a enormous want for advancing applied sciences for ice monitoring and forecasting.

Keld Qvistgaard, Greenland Ice Service

Analysis from the Arctic Council suggests a 37% enhance in transport over the previous decade, with projections indicating additional development by 2050 as melting ice opens new routes.

Three passages – the North-West Passage (by way of Greenland and Canada), the Northern Sea Route (by way of Russia) and the Transpolar Sea Route (by way of Iceland) – every provide doubtlessly quicker and cheaper cargo transport.

But Arctic navigation stays treacherous. Even with the help of icebreakers – huge steel-hulled ships designed to chop by means of ice – surprising situations can pose critical dangers.

In November 2021, an uncommon climate occasion within the East Siberian Sea triggered an early and intense sea ice formation referred to as a speedy refreeze. Over 20 vessels turned trapped in thick pack ice, requiring a protracted and costly rescue operation.

“The Arctic navigation season is much longer today than 20 years ago. It is also much more variable,” mentioned Bertino.

Navigating the long run

Past bettering current merchandise from the Copernicus Marine and Local weather Change Providers, the ACCIBERG workforce can be creating new open-source forecasting software program.

Sooner or later, these forecasts might be included into digital navigation techniques to additional improve Arctic security in shut cooperation with the Copernicus Arctic Hub.

Formally launched in October 2023, the Copernicus Arctic Hub serves as a centralised platform offering entry to a variety of information and knowledge on the Arctic to help evidence-based decision-making and sustainable administration practices.

For now although, Bertino sees the advantages of improved forecasting extending past business transport.

“It’s not just about economics – it’s about supporting the people who live and work in the Arctic,” he mentioned.

It’s a sentiment echoed by his compatriot, Niko Dubreuil, again in Greenland the place drifting icebergs additionally pose an actual hazard to native communities. That is a part of the rationale that they’re comfortable to have the ability to actively contribute by putting beacons on the icebergs.

“This project is not just about technology, it’s about the people who live in these regions, the scientists working to make navigation safer, and the tourists who learn about the significance of the environment. We’re all connected in this effort,” he mentioned.

Analysis on this article was funded by the EU’s Horizon Programme. The views of the interviewees don’t essentially mirror these of the European Fee. Should you appreciated this text, please contemplate sharing it on social media.

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This text was initially printed in Horizon, the EU Analysis and Innovation journal with Artistic Commons License

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