Visitors Deaths Are Down, however Not for the Causes We’re Being Instructed

By Charles Marohn

Final month, town of Tampa, Florida, introduced that its Imaginative and prescient Zero initiative was working. Deadly crashes have been down 12% in 2024 in comparison with the earlier 12 months, and severe harm crashes had dropped by 26%. The announcement celebrated these outcomes as proof that native security efforts have been making streets safer.

Everybody needs fewer lethal crashes, and any decline in fatalities is nice information. However earlier than we declare victory, now we have to ask an important query: Is that this decline actual? Or is it merely a return to pre-pandemic circumstances, misattributed to coverage modifications?

These are vital questions as a result of we threat studying the flawed classes on site visitors security from our time within the pandemic.

The False Optimistic Downside

The pandemic gave us an unintentional site visitors security experiment. Within the early days of COVID-19, with fewer individuals on the street, one might need anticipated site visitors fatalities to drop. In truth, that’s what the standard site visitors engineer would have predicted. Visitors deaths are seen largely as a perform of miles pushed. With dramatically fewer miles being pushed, deaths ought to have plummeted.

As an alternative, the alternative occurred.

With empty streets, rushing surged and the deadly crash charge per mile pushed elevated dramatically. Robust Cities was among the many first — and considerably the one — group to report on this phenomenon, warning that streets overengineered for high-speed car motion turn out to be deadlier when drivers are free to push the boundaries of the design.

Public security officers and advocacy organizations broadly attributed this enhance in fatalities to reckless driving, impaired drivers or a scarcity of enforcement, however the actuality was much more systemic. Vast, overbuilt streets — designed to accommodate excessive speeds — create an atmosphere the place even small errors have lethal penalties. With out the friction of congestion to gradual automobiles down, the elemental flaws in our avenue designs have been uncovered.

Now, as site visitors congestion has returned to regular, we should always anticipate deadly crashes to say no — not essentially due to security applications, however as a result of congested roads gradual drivers down. That is what is going on in Tampa Bay and in different cities touting related outcomes.

The U.S. Division of Transportation (USDOT) experiences that site visitors volumes have absolutely rebounded from pandemic lows. In lots of locations, they now exceed pre-pandemic ranges. A latest Good Cities Dive report reveals that congestion ranges in main U.S. metro areas are up 12% from 2019 ranges. Cities like Tampa, Atlanta and Dallas are seeing extra car miles traveled than earlier than the pandemic, resulting in elevated ranges of congestion.

Congestion is irritating, however it acts as a pure velocity limiter. A dense line of automobiles inching ahead on a packed roadway shouldn’t be going to create a high-speed, deadly collision. If a metropolis sees declining deadly crashes on this atmosphere, it doesn’t essentially imply their insurance policies are working — it seemingly simply implies that extra drivers are caught in site visitors.

But, moderately than recognizing the function of site visitors patterns in shaping crash outcomes, these cities and the USDOT are dashing to credit score reductions to their very own largely ineffective insurance policies. They’re leaving their lethal streets unchanged.

Studying the Incorrect Classes

The largest hazard of a false constructive isn’t simply misplaced credit score — it’s what occurs subsequent. If officers consider their efforts are accountable for the decline in fatalities, they could double down on ineffective applications whereas ignoring vital reforms.

Regardless of fluctuations in congestion ranges, there stays a cussed stage of site visitors fatalities that we appear unable to handle. This was true earlier than the pandemic, and it stays true now. Cities proceed to overspend on overengineered streets which are in the end unsafe. If we don’t change our design strategy, elevated congestion might unintentionally save lives throughout peak durations, however our streets will stay actually harmful. This hazard reveals up throughout off-peak instances, when most deadly crashes happen.

If we genuinely need to scale back these numbers, we have to be taught the teachings that the pandemic revealed concerning the relationship between avenue design and site visitors fatalities. Because of this we yelled so loudly about how the reckless driver narrative was reckless and that we are able to’t go round blaming the unvaccinated and different such silliness like our establishments did throughout the pandemic.

If we don’t be taught these classes, we are going to proceed to see a baseline of preventable deaths that no quantity of enforcement, schooling or reactive coverage can repair.

This previous October, Robust Cities launched the “Beyond Blame” report, our findings from 18 months of serving to conduct Crash Evaluation Studio periods. The report supplies a roadmap for cities to maneuver past blaming particular person drivers or pedestrians and as an alternative take a scientific strategy to stopping crashes. It outlined six key suggestions for cities seeking to make significant progress on site visitors security:

Make Security a Core Organizational Duty — Assign a devoted individual or staff throughout the metropolis authorities to actively advocate for site visitors security throughout all departments and decision-making processes.
Set up a Crash Response Workforce — Create a staff to analyze severe crashes, gathering knowledge to know the causes and establish patterns to stop future accidents.
Create a Crash Evaluation Studio — Conduct in-depth analyses of deadly crashes to establish the numerous contributing components.
Use Short-term Visitors Management Gadgets — Shortly handle hazardous conditions with short-term measures, utilizing customary practices for lane closures and different building tasks whereas everlasting options are developed.
Replace Native Avenue Requirements — Prioritize security over site visitors velocity and throughput when designing and modifying native streets.
Conduct Bike and Stroll Audits — Present the identical stage of perception and consciousness to the protection of individuals biking and strolling as is routinely utilized to individuals driving.

To make actual progress on site visitors security, the individuals working in metropolis corridor have to basically shift their pondering on crashes. They want a brand new understanding, a special baseline for his or her inner dialog.

The Crash Evaluation Studio mannequin was developed as a manner for native leaders to redirect their employees towards a protected streets agenda. By asking their employees to systematically analyze crashes, establish systemic design flaws, and implement focused security enhancements, native leaders can floor essential questions. Asking totally different questions — higher questions — is how native leaders will transfer their metropolis past the ineffective cycle of blame, past the feckless enforcement and consciousness campaigns, and to an strategy to avenue security that works (and prices a lot, a lot much less to implement and keep).

We don’t want extra bulletins celebrating short-term statistical shifts. We want native governments that decide to actual, structural modifications in how they design and handle their streets. If that’s you, we’re right here to assist. I’d love to return to your metropolis and enable you to get a Crash Evaluation Studio began. In case your native management is prepared, join and we’ll speak.

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Beforehand Printed on strongtowns.org with Artistic Commons License

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