By Paul Bierman
Donald Trump has a factor for Greenland. First, he wished to purchase the Arctic island. Then, his son visited for a photo-op. Now, he refuses to rule out utilizing the U.S. navy to grab it.
A long time in the past, the worth of Greenland was certainly its strategic location between superpowers and its distinctive mineral assets. Now not. At this time, Greenland’s worth is the ice that covers 80 p.c of the island. Retaining Greenland’s ice frozen preserves no less than a trillion {dollars} of wealth technology, in line with a 2020 research, and would assist forestall trillions of {dollars} in estimated losses by 2100. If we let all that ice soften, world sea degree will rise 24 ft greater than it’s immediately. Low-lying farm fields, factories, properties, and huge swaths of cities together with New Orleans, Miami, Jakarta, and Mumbai will principally vanish beneath the waves until we spend much more constructing barricades to maintain the ocean out.
What issues now could be cooling Earth’s local weather to protect Greenland’s ice and with it, our collective coastal future. But, the president continues to view the island nation by way of an antiquated lens of energy: possessing the land of others to generate wealth and to maintain perceived enemies at bay.
Trump’s fascination with Greenland isn’t a brand new thought. For greater than a thousand years, colonial aspirations have formed the island’s historical past. The Norse, Danes, Nazis, and People got here to Greenland chasing territory and pure assets, and for navy domination of the Arctic.
Take into account Erik the Purple, who migrated from Norway as a baby, and was later banished from his residence in Iceland for homicide. In 985 C.E., he sailed deep right into a southern Greenland fjord. On a patch of flat coast, Erik established Brattahlíð, the primary of what would grow to be about 500 Norse farms on the island. Inside a couple of hundred years, the Norse had vanished. We now know that local weather change had pushed sea degree virtually 10 ft greater in southern Greenland, flooding their settlements and contributing to their demise.
Almost a thousand years later and a 10-minute boat journey throughout the fjord from Brattahlíð, U.S. navy bulldozers constructed a mile-long airstrip in the beginning of the Second World Warfare. Stopping there to refuel on their one-way journey to the European theatre, U.S. bombers rumbled previous the Norse ruins.
The president continues to view the island nation by way of an antiquated lens of energy: possessing the land of others to generate wealth and to maintain perceived enemies at bay.
The People weren’t alone. On the desolate East Greenland coast, Nazi meteorologists radioed coded climate studies to Germany, vital data for correct battlefield forecasts as a result of climate in Europe comes principally from the west. This was the primary trace that Greenland was strategically beneficial each in struggle and as a bit of Earth’s local weather system.
Because the Chilly Warfare heated up, the American occupation of Greenland expanded. The sprawling U.S. airfield at Thule, solely about 2,800 miles from Moscow, housed atomic weapons and 10,000 males. Camp Century, the Military’s nuclear-powered base, hummed contained in the ice sheet. It was the beginning of a grand plan that will have intermediate vary tactical nuclear missiles shifting forwards and backwards by way of ice sheet tunnels. This atomic shell sport would cowl an space concerning the dimension of the state of Alabama. However in just some years, that fever dream light because the snow tunnels collapsed and long-range ballistic missiles diminished Greenland’s deterrent worth.
By the late Nineteen Sixties, American troopers had been going residence as a result of occupying the Arctic was now not as strategically significant. Abandoning bases, the navy left an assortment of hazardous supplies of their wake: at Camp Century, 10,000 tons of waste together with persistent and poisonous natural chemical compounds like polychlorinated biphenyls, lead, asbestos, and tens of millions of gallons of frozen sewage; and at Thule, a harbor contaminated with plutonium when a nuclear weapon, carried by a crashed B-52 bomber, disintegrated on impression.
Lately, the Danes have been tidying up that mess, base by deserted base. However nobody has been meaningfully cleansing up the worldwide environment. Because the combustion of fossil fuels began in earnest about 1850, people have added greenhouse gases ample to heat Earth by a mean of greater than 2 levels Fahrenheit; the Arctic is warming a number of instances sooner.
Like an ice dice on a sultry summer time day, Greenland’s ice sheet is melting, and that water, flowing into the ocean, is steadily elevating sea degree globally. The rising ocean is now endangering our nationwide safety.
Take into account that Naval Station Norfolk, the most important navy port on the planet and residential to 5 of 12 U.S. plane carriers, is now sinking beneath the waves. Worldwide, greater than half a billion individuals stay inside 25 ft of sea degree, in line with a 2019 research. If Greenland’s ice continues to soften, rising seas will submerge their properties and farms, like these of the Norse. What follows would be the largest human migration in historical past.
Greenland’s ice wouldn’t be melting if a number of a long time of ethical appeals to handle local weather change had successfully engaged individuals and politicians. However these pleadings, typically couched in apocalyptic tones, have fallen flat. We want a unique strategy.
I recommend that advocating for local weather stability as a strategic and financial crucial — an concept that politicians throughout the ideological spectrum may help — is our greatest hope to maintain Greenland’s ice frozen and thus the seas from rising additional. The U.S. navy, integral to the Chilly Warfare occupation of Greenland and revered by most People, supplies an instance of simply such an strategy.
Navy and intelligence planners are aware of the strategic menace that local weather change presents globally as droughts, floods, and heatwaves destabilize meals provides and regimes. They know that local weather change is a menace multiplier and catalyst for battle. The rising frequency of uncommon, excessive, and probably destabilizing local weather occasions now makes world geopolitics ever extra unsure.
The expertise of the U.S. navy exhibits that taking motion to scale back local weather impacts will be each an financial and strategic win. At bases all over the world, engineers have expanded using renewable vitality whereas constructing native microgrids with battery storage for dependable, 24/7 energy. Stepping away from fossil fuels is already saving tens of millions of taxpayer {dollars} in vitality prices whereas lowering provide chain and operational vulnerability.
In a means, Donald Trump has it proper. We want Greenland — not the land, however the ice. Retaining that ice frozen means cooling our quickly warming world, particularly, the Arctic. Decarbonizing the worldwide financial system is a vital first step. Subsequent, we have to develop and take a look at applied sciences, each mechanical and pure, that take away carbon dioxide from the environment. Solely then will Earth cool sufficiently to maintain Greenland’s ice on land and out of the ocean.
Our planet’s temperature, not politicians’ ambitions, will decide whether or not the ice stays on Greenland or melts and pours into the worldwide ocean.
The final time Earth was as heat because it was in 2024 was doubtless greater than 100,000 years in the past — a time when sea degree rose no less than 20 ft, reshaping the world’s coastlines. A few of that water got here from Greenland’s melted ice. Even higher melting and sea degree rise occurred 400,000 years in the past. Our planet’s temperature, not politicians’ ambitions, will decide whether or not the ice stays on Greenland or melts and pours into the worldwide ocean.
Bear in mind Trump’s Florida property, Mar-a-Lago. 4 ft of sea-level rise floods the decrease garden. Six ft and the Atlantic Ocean might trickle into the foyer. Soften Greenland’s ice sheet and solely Mar-a-Lago’s higher story and tower protrude above the waves. Our collective actions over the subsequent a long time will decide the way forward for Earth’s ice and thus, world sea degree.
President Trump, probably the most strategic alternative now isn’t shopping for or seizing Greenland however working globally to avoid wasting its ice sheet, as a result of what occurs in Greenland has but to remain in Greenland.
Paul Bierman is a geoscientist and professor of pure assets on the College of Vermont with 40 years of expertise learning glaciers and ice sheets. His newest ebook, “When the Ice is Gone,” recounts the navy, local weather, and scientific historical past of Greenland.
This text was initially printed on Undark. Learn the unique article.
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